The NIFTY 50 index closed the week on a positive note, gaining 232.70 points or 1.20%. The index touched a new all-time high of 19,991.85 on Wednesday, driven by strong earnings, positive global cues and optimism over the economic recovery. The index also witnessed some profit booking and consolidation in the later part of the week, as investors awaited more cues from the upcoming RBI policy meeting and the US Fed meeting.
The following bullet points summarize the daily performance of the NIFTY 50 index for the week, along with the open value, day’s high, day’s low and volatility VIX for each day:
17-JUL-2023 (Mon)- Nifty index - closing value: 19,711.45, open value: 19,612.15, day’s high: 19,731.85, day’s low: 19,562.95, volatility VIX: 11.82
- Change from previous trading day: +0.76%
- Trend: Bullish
- Top 5 Factors which drove the market this day:
- Positive global markets
- Strong earnings from HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and HCL Technologies
- Expectations of GST rate cut on some items
- Recovery in metal and pharma stocks
- FII buying
- Nifty index - closing value: 19,749.25, open value: 19,787.50, day’s high: 19,819.45, day’s low: 19,690.20, volatility VIX: 11.55
- Change from previous trading day: +0.19%
- Trend: Sideways
- Top 5 Factors which drove the market this day:
- Mixed global cues
- Profit booking in IT and banking stocks
- Weakness in auto and FMCG stocks
- Rise in oil prices
- DII selling
- Nifty index - closing value: 19,833.15, open value: 19,802.95, day’s high: 19,851.70, day’s low: 19,727.45, volatility VIX: 11.28
- Change from previous trading day: +0.42%
- Trend: Bullish
- Top 5 Factors which drove the market this day:
- Record high US markets
- Strong earnings from Wipro, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank
- Surge in telecom and realty stocks
- Decline in COVID-19 cases
- FII buying
- Nifty index - closing value: 19,979.15, open value: 19,831.70, day’s high: 19,991.85, day’s low: 19,758.40, volatility VIX: 10.96
- Change from previous trading day: +0.74%
- Trend: Bullish
- Top 5 Factors which drove the market this day:
- New all-time high for NIFTY 50 index
- Strong earnings from Infosys, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank
- Rally in IT and banking stocks
- Positive European markets
- FII buying
- Nifty index - closing value: 19,775.35, open value: 19,800.45, day’s high: 19,887.40 , day’s low: 19,763.15 , volatility VIX: 12.01
- Change from previous trading day: -1.02%
- Trend: Bearish
- Top 5 Factors which drove the market this day:
- Profit booking at higher levels
- Weakness in global markets
- Concerns over rising inflation and interest rates
- Fall in metal and energy stocks
- FII selling
Outlook for the week starting 24Jul23
The NIFTY 50 index is likely to remain volatile and range-bound in the next week, as investors will focus on the outcome of the RBI policy meeting on Wednesday and the US Fed meeting on Thursday. The RBI is expected to maintain a status quo on interest rates and an accommodative stance, while the US Fed may signal a tapering of its bond-buying program amid rising inflation.
The following are some of the key factors that may influence the market sentiment in the next week:
- Earnings season: The earnings season will continue to be a major driver for the market, as some of the heavyweights like HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, ITC, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC and SBI will announce their quarterly results. The market will also react to the earnings of other companies that reported after market hours on Friday, such as Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank and JSW Steel.
- Global cues: The global markets will also have a significant impact on the domestic market, as investors will track the developments in the US-China trade talks, the Brexit negotiations, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and North Korea, and the coronavirus situation across the world.
- Macro data: The market will also look for cues from some of the macroeconomic data that will be released in the next week, such as the GDP growth rate for Q1 FY24, the core sector output for June, the fiscal deficit data for Q1 FY24, and the foreign exchange reserves for July.
- Sectoral trends: The sectoral trends will also play a role in shaping the market direction, as some sectors may outperform or underperform based on their earnings performance, outlook and valuations. The IT sector may continue to remain in focus, as it has delivered strong results so far and has a positive outlook due to increased digital spending by clients. The banking sector may also witness some action, as it is expected to report improved asset quality and credit growth. The metal sector may face some pressure, as it may witness some profit booking after a sharp rally and due to the uncertainty over the global demand and supply situation. The pharma sector may also see some volatility, as it may be impacted by the regulatory issues and the pricing pressure in the US market.
- Technical factors: The technical factors will also have a bearing on the market movement, as the NIFTY 50 index may face some resistance or support at certain levels. The index may face resistance at 20,000 and 20,200 levels, while it may find support at 19,600 and 19,400 levels. The index may also witness some consolidation or correction after a strong rally in the previous weeks.
The following bullet points summarize the top 10 predictions and factors anticipated to drive the market for the next week:
- NIFTY 50 index may trade in a range of 19,400-20,200
- RBI policy meeting and US Fed meeting
- IT sector may outperform the market
- Strong earnings and positive outlook
- Banking sector may witness some action
- Improved asset quality and credit growth
- Metal sector may face some pressure
- Profit booking and global uncertainty
- Pharma sector may see some volatility
- Regulatory issues and pricing pressure
- Telecom sector may remain in focus
- Earnings performance and tariff hike expectations
- Realty sector may continue to rally
- Low interest rates and pent-up demand
- Auto sector may remain subdued
- Weak demand and supply chain disruptions
- FMCG sector may show resilience
- Stable consumption and rural demand
- Oil & gas sector may see some movement
- Fluctuation in oil prices and earnings impact